Dragon Boat Festival liquor "small peak season" sales smooth, consumer confidence recovery at the same time wine enterprises ushered in challenges.

Dragon Boat Festival as one of the few sales nodes in the first half of the liquor market, in the traditional festival, college entrance examination thank-you banquet/school banquet, e-commerce 618 of the triple buff superposition, liquor sales performance has become a direct reflection of the first half of the 2024 industry situation of the important guide, so by many attention.

On June 10, Orient Securities issued a research report stating that during the Dragon Boat Festival, the approval prices and demand performance of most liquor companies remained relatively stable. At the same time, the recent shareholder meetings of many listed liquor companies ended, and liquor companies represented by Yanghe and others are more focused on regional stronghold. And the in-depth development of the highland market, while paying more attention to ensuring shareholder returns through the increase in dividend rates.

Scene, June college entrance examination ended, July-August thanks to the teacher banquet, school banquet and other banquet scenes increased, superimposed last year's Mid-Autumn National Day banquet low base, optimistic about the follow-up banquet scene demand increased.

1

Liquor Dragon Boat Festival performance is stable

"Destocking" is still the main theme

As an important carrier of Chinese traditional culture, liquor sales growth is an intuitive reflection of the recovery of consumer confidence and the trend of consumption upgrading. According to the tradition of previous years, before the Dragon Boat Festival is usually the peak season for liquor sales. Many mid-to-high-end liquors, such as Kweichow Moutai, will even usher in a "small climax" of price increases, but this phenomenon does not seem to have occurred this year.

As of June 7, according to Wind and today's wine price data, the original box Kweichow Moutai and loose bottle Kweichow Moutai batch prices reached about 2720 yuan and 2470 yuan respectively.

The approval prices of Pu5 and Guojiao 1573 are about 970 yuan and 880 yuan respectively, the ratio of Pu5 ring is flat, and the national cellar increases month-on-month. The prices of major sub-high-end products remained stable. The prices of Dream Blue M6, Blue and Flower 30, Crystal Sword, Taste, Shuijingfang Jingtai and Alcoholic Hongtan reached about 570, 860, 410, 360, 455 and 420 yuan/500ml respectively.

A number of securities institutions issued the Dragon Boat Research Report, Wuliangye sales benign, batch price upward, Luzhou old cellar brand strength is stable, Shanxi liquor sales good, batch price is strong, Gujing tribute wine, the world, old white dry wine are showing the basic plate strong in the province, the performance of the nationalization outside the province.

Overall, the liquor market Dragon Boat Festival performance is stable, the basic sales to good but failed to appear "small peak season" phenomenon.

In the first quarter of this year, most of the listed liquor companies have achieved good performance growth, and the confidence of the channel has been significantly enhanced, but the inventory pressure of the industry is still obvious.

According to the quarterly report of listed companies, as of March 31 this year, 20 liquor listed companies had a total inventory of more than 140 billion yuan, an increase of 10% year-on-year.

The high proportion of inventory has exposed the problem of "de-stocking" in the liquor industry for a long time. Since last year, many liquor companies have taken "destocking" as their core work throughout the year.

According to data released by the China Liquor Industry Association, in the first quarter of this year, the total output of regulated liquor companies increased by 6.0 year-on-year. Sales revenue increased 13.8 percent year-on-year; profit increased 13.1 percent year-on-year. The loss of liquor enterprises on the regulations was 34.9, an increase of 5.3 percentage points over the previous year.

2

Consumption recovery less than expected

Adjust the state to meet the opportunity

In early June, Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Liquor Industry Association, pointed out when attending the event that there has been a group shift and structural changes in the basic consumption of alcohol this year. Small and medium-sized brands and wine merchants have certain inventory backlogs, price inversions, and weaker expectations.

In the process of consumption recovery, the continuous lack of channel digestion capacity and the slowdown of consumption make the liquor industry in the stage of destocking for a long time. The Dragon Boat Festival liquor consumption feedback, the overall lower than expected, a large part of the reason for this.

First of all, the Dragon Boat Festival market gift-giving demand is not high. Although there are holiday attributes, Maotai, Wuliangye, Langjiu and other brands have launched new products or Dragon Boat Festival gift boxes, but compared with the Mid Autumn Festival, National Day and Spring Festival, the demand for gifts is not large, and it is reasonable for the terminal market to have a small increase.

Second, the phenomenon of weak consumption is still continuing. The phenomenon of weak consumption has led to a weak awareness of end consumers buying liquor and hoarding, and a decline in their willingness to buy liquor or invest in the nature of consumption. In this context, they are more inclined to buy just-needed supplies.

Again, although the superposition of the college entrance examination, entrance and other special periods, but the time from the entrance examination after the entrance banquet there is still some time. According to the public two banquet policy of liquor enterprises, liquor enterprises are launching relevant promotion policies one after another. Many brands such as Yanghe, Guoyuan, Yellow Crane Tower, Jingzhi and Songhe have begun to make announcements. However, in recent years, the regulations on teacher appreciation banquets and school entrance banquets have been strengthened again and again, and the two banquet markets will also suffer a lot of impact.

Finally, the Dragon Boat Festival, which is superimposed on the 618 e-commerce festival, looks less attractive against the background of the "ultra-long standby" 618. Although the online "price war" has become the norm, for mainstream liquor, it is mainly concentrated on big brand products. Perhaps based on this feature, each winery does not have much marketing action except live broadcast. It can be seen that the expectation of "618" in the whole liquor industry this year is not high.

In general, this year's Dragon Boat Festival consumption season in the "three in one" buff superposition performance is still stable. The festive atmosphere for liquor consumption is not strong, the demand for gifts during the Dragon Boat Festival is weak, the mass consumption is mainly based on the need for liquor, and the purchase of liquor is more rational. The college entrance examination thank-you banquet and the entrance banquet have lengthened the battle line in time, and wine enterprises are struggling to move forward under relevant policies. The 618 lasted for a month. Judging from the performance, the big brands took the lead and the festival promotion effect was not expected.

What is certain is that although macroeconomic development is under pressure in the short term, the long-term positive trend remains unchanged. After the Spring Festival, the liquor market basically entered the off-season in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year will be the peak season of the liquor industry. Under the trend of increasing market size, challenges and opportunities coexist in the liquor industry. Liquor companies should actively adjust to better meet The time is coming.

Original Actual Combat King